Prediction in Tokyo final!
Alcaraz has already played three sets in three of his last five completed matches, while Lehecka has also gone the distance in two of his last four matches. Their previous four meetings have produced two three-set matches, including Lehecka’s upset win in Doha.
Match: Alcaraz vs Lehecka
League / Competition: ATP Tour
Our Pick: Over 2,5 sets
Odds: 2.65
Market: Over/Under
Analyst Confidence: 4/5
Alcaraz arrives in the Tokyo final after another three-set battle, coming back from a set down to beat Jaume Munar 5–7, 6–3, 6–1. Lehecka has also shown his ability to compete in long matches this week, including a three-set victory over Ugo Humbert.
The head-to-head is 3–1 in Alcaraz’s favour, but two of their four meetings have gone to three sets, including Lehecka’s 2025 Doha victory and their three-set final at Queen’s. With both players in strong form and Lehecka possessing the game to challenge Alcaraz on hard courts, Over 2.5 Sets is the selection.
Prediction: Over 2.5 Sets🎾✅