Prediction in Tokyo!
Alcaraz and Munar have already played a three-set thriller in their most recent meeting, with Alcaraz winning 6–3, 6–7, 7–5 at Queen’s in 2025. Munar has also just beaten Taylor Fritz in three sets in Tokyo, while Alcaraz was pushed to three sets by Alex Michelsen earlier in the tournament.
Match: Alcaraz vs Munar
League / Competition: ATP Tour
Our Pick: Over 2,5 sets
Odds: 3.55
Market: Over/Under
Analyst Confidence: 4/5
Munar comes into this semifinal with excellent momentum, having beaten Taylor Fritz in three sets before progressing past Kyrian Jacquet in straight sets. Alcaraz has also shown some vulnerability during the tournament, needing three sets to overcome Alex Michelsen before beating Matteo Arnaldi in straight sets.
The head-to-head is 3–1 in Alcaraz’s favour, but their latest meeting went the distance, with Munar pushing Alcaraz through three competitive sets. With Munar’s defensive consistency and the slower Tokyo conditions potentially helping him extend rallies, Over 2.5 Sets is the selection.
Prediction: Over 2.5 Sets🎾✅